Chinese automakers are expected to outsell Japanese manufacturers globally in 2025, marking the first time China overtakes Japan in annual vehicle sales after more than two decades of Japanese dominance, according to a Nikkei China report based on industry data through November 2025. The report, which draws on data from automaker disclosures and S&P Global Mobility, projects that Chinese automakers will sell around 27 million vehicles worldwide in 2025, compared with just under 25 million for Japanese manufacturers.
These figures include both passenger and commercial vehicles, covering domestic sales and exports. Sales are attributed based on company ownership and brand nationality, with 50:50 joint ventures counted according to the brand sold. China’s domestic market is expected to account for roughly 70 percent of total sales by Chinese automakers. New energy vehicles (NEVs), including battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), are projected to make up nearly 60 percent of passenger car sales in China.
Industry data shows that BYD and Geely have entered the global top ten automakers by sales in 2025, while Chery has become one of China’s leading exporters, recording significant overseas growth. Chinese vehicle exports continued to rise in 2025. Southeast Asia, historically dominated by Japanese brands, is projected to see about 500,000 Chinese vehicles sold.
In Europe, sales are expected to reach approximately 2.3 million units, despite import tariffs, as exports include PHEVs not subject to additional duties. Emerging markets are also showing strong growth for Chinese automakers. Africa is expected to see 230,000 vehicles sold, a 32 percent increase year-on-year, while Latin America could reach 540,000 units, up 33 percent.
Japanese automakers, whose global sales peaked at nearly 30 million vehicles in 2018, are projected to remain slightly below Chinese volumes in 2025. Reports indicate some Japanese brands faced sales declines in key regions, including the United States, while their market share in China has gradually decreased relative to local manufacturers. The 2025 projections reflect changes in global vehicle sales rankings based on estimated volumes and do not suggest causation beyond the reported data.
