China’s GDP grew at 5 percent year-on-year to 140.19 trillion yuan ($20.13 trillion) in 2025, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Monday, meeting the annual growth target of around 5 percent and surpassing the 140-trillion-yuan threshold for the first time. Observers said that the upbeat data underscored the resilience and vitality of the world’s second-largest economy despite multiple downward pressures, and such growth momentum will continue to position China as a beacon of stability and the locomotive of the world economy.
In the fourth quarter, China’s GDP rose 4.5 percent from the same period in 2024. And the country’s GDP grew 5.4 percent in the first quarter, 5.2 percent in the second quarter and 4.8 percent in the third quarter in year-on-year terms, data from NBS showed.
In 2025, China’s value-added industrial output rose by 5.9 percent compared to the same period in 2024, while fixed-asset investment declined by 3.8 percent year-on-year. China’s retail sales of consumer goods jumped 3.7 percent year-on-year last year, NBS data showed.
“The national economy sustained momentum of steady progress in 2025 despite multiple pressures, and high-quality development registered new achievements,” Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press briefing of the State Council Information Office on Monday on the release of the economic data.
“Though economic growth in the fourth quarter experienced a phased slowdown, the overall trajectory remained stable throughout the year, with economic structure continuing to show signs of optimizing,” Tian Yun, a Beijing-based economist, told the Global Times. He emphasized that the Chinese economy has demonstrated strong resilience in the face of multiple uncertainties, including the tariff war provoked by the US, insufficient domestic demand, and a weakening property sector.
Hu Qimu, deputy secretary-general of Forum 50 for Digital-Real Economies Integration, in particular highlighted the development of such industries as high-tech and advanced manufacturing, which shows that the development of China’s new quality productive forces has been gearing up and become a prominent driver of the economy in 2025.
Meanwhile, the robust export demand also fueled the uptick in industrial output. In 2025, China’s foreign trade in goods grew by 3.8 percent year-on-year to reach 45.47 trillion yuan ($6.51 trillion), hitting a new record and marking the first time that the volume has exceeded the 45-trillion-yuan threshold, official data showed on Wednesday.
In the fourth quarter, China’s growth in retail sales also stabilized, boosted by a slew of measures that stimulate consumer demand as well as the vibrant spending during the eight-day National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays, analysts said. They noted that the contribution of domestic consumption has risen significantly, signaling that China’s economic structure is becoming increasingly balanced and resilient.
Tian pointed out that the consumer demand has gotten off a good start this year, with notable release of consumer demands during the New Year’s Day holidays, and is expected to continue rising steadily through the upcoming Spring Festival holidays.
Looking ahead to 2026- the beginning year of China’s 15th Five-year Plan (2026-30), the fundamental conditions and long-term positive trajectory supporting China’s economic development remain unchanged. With the coordinated support of multiple policies, economic growth is expected to continue rebounding, and the outlook for development remains promising despite global uncertainties, Tian added.
“In 2026, the deep application of artificial intelligence across more scenarios will fully leverage China’s advantages — including its complete industrial system, ultra-large-scale market, and rich application environments and thus play a significant role in stimulating consumption, improving industrial operational efficiency, and alleviating structural supply-demand imbalances. At the same time, it will give rise to new industries and new business models, injecting fresh growth drivers into China’s economy,” Hu said.
UK-based multinational bank Standard Chartered forecasted that China’s GDP will grow at around 4.6 percent in 2026. China will move away from a tariff-related emergency response mode and “is refocusing on promoting tech-driven growth with a greater emphasis on domestic demand” this year, according to a report the bank sent to the Global Times on Sunday.
Chinese economy is projected by Goldman Sachs Research to grow by 4.8 percent this year as exports increase and the downward pressure from a slowing property market lessens, according to a report the US investment bank released on its website.
